Research company Cowen has made it an obsession to follow various stats related to Apple’s iPhone business (and thus keep track of its health status), and one of those stats seems to be “number of iPhones produced” on quarterly basis.

It sounds like a great deal for Apple, but reality is a little different. Cupertino has reportedly increased its iPhone production during Q2 to the tune of just 2.5%: from 39 million expected units to 40 million. Why is that?

The market analysts at Apple have surely crunched all the numbers and determined what the maximum possible market opportunity is going to be for Apple, in light of the Huawei ban. iPhones are incredibly popular all over the world, but Apple’s strongest position is, understandably, in the US, where Huawei smartphones are next to nonexistent anyway.

Apple has been experiencing a decline in year-over-year iPhone sales for a while now, and there is no reason to believe that this trend is about to change in the near term. In fact, Cowen analysts believe that there may still be certain risks for Apple’s business, due to the ongoing trade face-off between the US and China. The possibilities of a counter-ban or additional tariffs imposed on Apple goods manufactured in China currently seem unlikely, but are nonetheless lingering in the air.